Crude oil remains near the key $65 level - what's next?
Crude oil closed 0.49% higher on Thursday, continuing its short-term consolidation within a relatively narrow range. Today, prices are up another 0.46%, trading above the $65 level. The market remains in a sideways pattern despite rallying stock markets and a weakening U.S. dollar, as investors await upcoming tariff-related developments.
For oil markets specifically, these developments are worth monitoring:
- Oil prices gain on Friday but are on track for their steepest weekly drop since March 2023
- Analysts say the market is now refocusing on fundamentals, including the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6. A potential production hike of 411,000 barrels per day is expected, while summer demand trends remain a key factor.
- Oil prices are also supported by falling inventories, particularly in middle distillates. U.S. EIA data showed declining crude and fuel stockpiles, with refining activity and demand increasing.
- China’s Iranian oil imports surged to a record high in June, reaching 1.8 million barrels per day. Analysts attribute the increase to accelerated shipments ahead of the conflict and rising demand from independent Chinese refineries.
Conclusion
Crude oil remains near the $65 level, a key medium-term support that previously acted as resistance. The market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, though volatility appears to be easing. The current price action may indicate a flat correction following the recent declines.
For now, my short-term outlook is neutral.
Here’s the breakdown:
- Crude oil sold off between Monday and Tuesday and has since been trading sideways.
- The ongoing tariff-related volatility, combined with economic data, is adding to market uncertainty.
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Thank you.
Paul Rejczak,
Stock Trading Strategist
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