Let me tell you a story. You already saw it, but this time, it’s presented so clearly that it would be a shame not to cover it.
It’s a story about the precious metals market, and it comes in six chapters. And it is this story that will serve as the short-term basis for the gold price forecast for July 2025.
1. The first part of the story starts in early June. That’s when gold miners topped. It is quite common for gold stocks to lead gold, so they both moved up, but miners were rallying ahead of gold. And it topped ahead of gold as well. That’s typical behavior that we’ve seen countless times in the past decades.
2. The second part is about gold price that formed its top in the middle of the month – several days after miners. This was not a move to new all-time highs – the April high was not exceeded, but it was still an important short-term top.
3. The tide has turned as miners – previously leading gold higher – failed to rally to new highs when gold did. Many people didn’t realize it at that time, but miners were already leading gold lower.
4. Silver is the laggard. It catches up, and when it does it outperforms. This doesn’t happen always, and while we didn’t have to see it – that’s exactly what happened. Was this a major breakout to new highs? It was. But was that a truly bullish development, or just something that silver does when the precious metals market tops? Many sings point to the latter but well know with certainty shortly – when (if?) silver invalidates its recent breakout. For now, we have a story in which silver does exactly what it used to do many times at the tops – it outperformed gold on a short-term basis.
5. The context matters, also in this story. Overall, gold, silver, and mining stocks failed to move to new highs in the second half of June, even though the USD Index moved lower and the general stock market moved higher. Oftentimes, defiance indicates strength, but this time it’s the opposite as it works the other way around. What “should” be pushing precious metals higher – no longer does.
6. We just arrived in the sixth chapter. On July 1, 2025, gold price moved higher (initially by over $60, but it gave away a large part of that rally before the closing bell), but gold miners completely ignored that upswing. In fact, the GDXJ ETF declined (just $0.01, but still) on that day in a rather extreme show of weakness. This is like chapter #3, but for those that missed the initial sign. If you didn’t pay attention then, you have your (perhaps final) chance to notice this sign now. Miners are once again telling us what the sector is about to do – be weak.
To build on silver’s and gold’s relationship, let’s take a look at the SLV to GLD ratio (I’d like to explain it more thoroughly, as I just received a question about silver - I’m also replying to it in the Letters to the Editor section below).
The RSI indicator based on it (upper part of the chart) recently moved above 70 and then declined back below it. I marked other similar cases with vertical, dashed lines. Guess what happened next in almost all cases? Declines.
The USD Index moved slightly higher today, so the theory in which it reverses at the turn of the month might be true.
The rally is tiny so far, but it’s obvious that the most recent move was to the downside, so the monthly turning point has bullish implications.
And before you say that the USD Index broke below its support levels, please note that this is exactly what happened before it formed its 2011 and 2018 bottoms as well.
In both of those cases RSI based on the weekly USD Index price changes moved below 30… Just like what we see right now.
Gold Price Prediction for July 2025
It seems that the Peak Chaos is here, and gold is no longer willing to react to what used to drive it higher.
Technically speaking, gold price’s breakdown was just verified. It moved to the previously broken support line, and then it moved back down.
And it all remains perfectly in tune with the link to how gold ended its 2011 bull market.
Two tops next to each other and then the final attempt to move higher. The only difference is that back in 2011-2012 we had two reactive rallies after the top, and this time we had just one. This is perfectly understandable given that this time everything is taking less time.
Right now – in July 2025, it seems that gold price is in the late-2012 or early-2013 part of the previous pattern. The back-and-forth decline. Consequently, seeing the recent rally – the verification of the breakdown – is completely in tune with that bigger bearish pattern. Whether this is the late-2012 or the early-2013 correction being repeated is not that important, as history doesn’t have to repeat itself to the letter. What is important is that the rally is unlikely to last, just like what mining stocks told us in chapter #6.
Gold price prediction for July 2025 is therefore bearish.
Also, while I’m normally posting the below section only in my premium Gold Trading Alerts, today, I’m posting it also here:
Letters to the Editor
Q: Silver hit 13-year highs above $36 recently while gold was correcting. Should I be rotating from gold positions into silver at these levels?
A: Thank you for this excellent question - it allows me to clarify a crucial point about silver's recent behavior. Silver has indeed surged nearly 30% in the first half of 2025, breaking through $36 per ounce in early June, but this actually fits the pattern I described in Chapter #4 of today's analysis.
Silver often outperforms at precious metals tops - it's the laggard that catches up just as the sector is peaking. While some analysts like Eric Sprott expect silver above $50, and others see potential for $100+ based on mining ratios, timing matters enormously. I agree that silver is likely to soar above $100, but I still think that it will decline (along with the rest of the precious metals sector) beforehand.
Given my current bearish stance on the sector, silver's recent breakout might be the classic 'silver catch-up' that often marks major tops. Rather than rotating into silver strength, patience for lower entry points in both metals seems more prudent. Of course, that’s just my general opinion, not individual investment advice.
Q: PR, I noticed you just launched the Seasonal Trading Primer service that combines Ryan Mitchell's analysis with Rick Ackerman's signals. As someone who's been following your Gold Trading Alerts for years, how should I think about incorporating other analysts' perspectives? Won't too many opinions create confusion?
A: I'm grateful for this question because it addresses something every serious investor grapples with - the balance between expertise and information overload.
You're absolutely right to be thoughtful about this. The key isn't adding more voices for the sake of it, but adding complementary expertise that enhances decision-making. Ryan's Seasonal Trading Primer is a perfect example - he's not duplicating what I do with precious metals analysis, but rather taking quality signals from specialists like Rick Ackerman and enhancing their reliability through seasonal timing.
Think of it like having multiple doctors review a complex medical case. A cardiologist brings different insights than an orthopedist, but both perspectives help create a more complete diagnosis.
The danger comes from following contradictory indications without a framework for evaluation. That's why I'm excited to be working on a systematic approach that can help optimize all this – but I don’t want to reveal the details before the system is launched. Let me just say that it’s something that doesn’t exist anywhere else.
For now, one idea would be to take Ryan’s or someone else’s signals into account when it comes to markets that I’m not covering. Another idea would be to decrease position sizes when the indications coming from other analysts that you value have a contradictory opinion to mine, and to increase it when those views align. In the latter case, someone else’s analysis might be useful when providing stop-loss details if I’m not providing them (like right now). As always, it’s your money and you decide what to do with it.
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Thank you.
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief